I’ve written before about how experts can sometimes be wrong. My aim in such instances is to challenge others to think for themselves. This does not necessarily mean that when we think for ourselves we are going to see things right. Quite often we can fall prey to the same errors of thought that the experts get tangled in.

One common error is to give too much weight to particulars, and lose sight of the big picture. How concerned should we be about a recession caused by falling housing prices and the sinking dollar? How worried should we be about a bird flu epidemic because of isolated outbreaks in China, Egypt and Indonesia?  And in the oil industry, how serious are concerns about energy resources and depleted oil supplies? How soon before we experience an energy crisis and what impact will that have on the oil change business? 

The solution to this problem is to step back and take in the big picture. This enables us to re-orient ourselves and get a context for all these details that surround us every day.

HISTORY OF TRANSPORTATION
At a certain point in time cities like New York were awash in by- product from horses.  We’re talking about tons of it. On a hot summer day, you can be sure this was but one inducement to have a getaway in the country. In short, those idyllic images we have about the era before engine emissions are only wonderful in our imaginations. No one ever mentions the smell of rotting organic matter and other stench associated with crowded cities before the automobile.

A little over a hundred years ago, the horseless carriage emerged on the scene. Some were battery powered and some ran on an internal combustion engine. The latter were noisy, but the former were limited in how far they could travel before needing to get re-amped. A four hour re-charge every fifty miles was not going to give you a very quick jaunt to Boston or Washington, once the roads were in place.

For better or worse, those noisy, somewhat smelly cars with internal combustion engines proved to be more popular because of their range. Batteries had issues, especially in cold climates.

Over time many technological advances made cars easier to operate, and eventually easier to maintain. Cost of operation was helped immensely with that first powerful gusher at Spindletop in Beaumont, Texas, in 1901. We had cheap fuel aplenty in those days. The auto industry was set in motion in a direction unquestioned for nearly a century.

In recent years, despite measures to reduce emissions through catalytic converters and other devices, there have been renewed efforts to design vehicles utilizing alternative power sources. A revival of interest in electric vehicles resulted in a number of makes of electric and hybrid vehicles being introduced over the past 10 years. And this summer we’ll see the first hydrogen cell car, Honda’s FCX, shorthand for Fuel Cell eXperiment.  

HISTORY OF LUBRICATION
At a certain point in time, people became aware that things with moving parts would operate better when lubricated. Beef fat and whale blubber were sufficient for many of the lubrication needs before the industrial age. The discovery of oil in the mid-nineteenth century had a huge impact on our lives today. The by-products of refining oil were numerous and beneficial not only for lubrication but as a source of energy.

As the 20th century dawned, half the cars on the road in our cities were electric powered. Due to their limitations, the internal combustion engine transported us through the 20th century. Over time, the limitations of conventional motor oil were eventually discovered when Nazi tanks became operable in a brutal winter during the invasion of Russia. Nazi scientists applied themselves to the task of developing an improved lubricant that would keep vehicles in operation in all climate extremes.

In the U.S., it was the need for superior lubricants in jet aircraft that drove the research. Jet engines raised the bar on what was required of a lubricant. The high speed, high heat and cold temperature performance requirements of modern jets created a demand for a new kind of lubricant.

In 1972, after years of research and experimentation one of the pilots who flew these jets, Lt. Col. Albert J. Amatuzio, developed a new kind of motor oil for automobiles called AMSOIL. While pricy and a bit ahead of its time, the merits of synthetic oil were recognized and a few years later the Mobil Oil Company endorsed the concept with the introduction of Mobil 1. Eventually, nearly every major oil company adopted a premium line of synthetic lubricant products.

CONCLUSIONS
Regarding concerns about depleted oil supplies, for the past 40 years we have heard that there is less than 10 years of oil left in the world. I heartily endorse the quest for alternative energies, whether hydrogen, wind, solar or even nuclear. Whatever has moving parts will need lubrication and we are a people ever on the move.

Whatever direction the economy goes in 2008, people will continue to commute to work, this year and for years to come. Environmental concerns and government pressure will put increasing demands on the auto industry and the lubricants that serve tomorrow’s sophisticated machines.

Whatever the final wording of this year’s energy bill, the goal of reducing emissions and improving fuel economy will continue to pressure automakers to develop more sophisticated engines. This will result in increased demand for synthetic oils and drivetrain fluids because of their numerous performance benefits.

The internal combustion engine will remain the power source in tomorrow’s vehicles simply because the infrastructure for alternatives does not exist. These vehicles will continue to need maintenance and the desire for convenience will drive your customers back to your facility in 2008. In the meantime, I don’t think we should be losing too much sleep over the bird flu.